{"id":23259,"date":"2026-09-08T08:39:37","date_gmt":"2026-09-08T06:39:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekolajmi.com\/?p=23259"},"modified":"2026-09-08T08:39:37","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T06:39:37","slug":"the-guardian-ekspertet-thone-se-largimi-global-nga-nafta-mund-te-coje-ne-konflikt-dhe-migrim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekolajmi.com\/index.php\/2026\/09\/08\/the-guardian-ekspertet-thone-se-largimi-global-nga-nafta-mund-te-coje-ne-konflikt-dhe-migrim\/","title":{"rendered":"The Guardian: Ekspert\u00ebt thon\u00eb se largimi global nga nafta mund t\u00eb \u00e7oj\u00eb n\u00eb konflikt dhe migrim"},"content":{"rendered":"

Konflikti, migrimi dhe trazirat ekonomike do t\u00eb shoq\u00ebrojn\u00eb largimin global nga nafta, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 n\u00ebse qeverit\u00eb veprojn\u00eb urgjentisht p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndihmuar vendet m\u00eb t\u00eb prekura nga kjo situat\u00eb, sipas nj\u00eb studimi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nigeria, Irani, Angola dhe Algjeria jan\u00eb nd\u00ebr vendet q\u00eb do t\u00eb preken r\u00ebnd\u00eb, pasi ato mb\u00ebshteten fuqimisht n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurat nga nafta p\u00ebr qeverin\u00eb e tyre dhe ofrimin e sh\u00ebrbimeve publike, por kan\u00eb pak diversifikim dhe shum\u00eb pak kapital p\u00ebr t\u00eb zbutur goditjen, shkruan The Guardian.<\/p>\n

P\u00ebrdorimi i naft\u00ebs tashm\u00eb po zvog\u00eblohet n\u00eb shum\u00eb vende, me rritjen e energjis\u00eb s\u00eb rinovueshme, dhe \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtuar nga\u00a0efektet e luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Iran<\/a>\u00a0, e cila ka kufizuar furnizimin dhe ka rritur \u00e7mimet, duke shkaktuar inflacion t\u00eb lart\u00eb dhe paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebri politike, transmeton Sinjali.<\/p>\n

K\u00ebrkesa globale p\u00ebr naft\u00eb parashikohet t\u00eb rrafshoj\u00eb n\u00eb dekad\u00ebn e ardhshme, me nj\u00eb kulm t\u00eb mundsh\u00ebm n\u00eb fillim t\u00eb viteve 2030, gj\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u2019i detyroj\u00eb prodhuesit t\u00eb ndjekin nj\u00eb grup bler\u00ebsish n\u00eb r\u00ebnie. Shum\u00eb do t\u00eb p\u00ebrpiqen t\u00eb ruajn\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurat e tyre nga burimet p\u00ebr aq koh\u00eb sa t\u00eb jet\u00eb e mundur, sipas\u00a0nj\u00eb studimi<\/a>\u00a0nga grupi i ekspert\u00ebve E3G t\u00eb publikuar t\u00eb mart\u00ebn, por prodhuesit m\u00eb t\u00eb lir\u00eb me burime t\u00eb bollshme \u2013 si\u00e7 jan\u00eb Arabia Saudite dhe Emiratet e Bashkuara Arabe \u2013 ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb fitojn\u00eb kund\u00ebr atyre me infrastruktur\u00eb m\u00eb pak t\u00eb p\u00ebrparuar.<\/p>\n

Shembulli i Venezuel\u00ebs, e cila po vuante nga kolapsi dhe kishte pasur nj\u00eb marrje t\u00eb pjesshme t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb nga SHBA-t\u00eb , e cila tani \u00ebsht\u00eb shkat\u00ebrruar m\u00eb tej nga ndikimi i t\u00ebrmeteve, duhet t\u2019i paralajm\u00ebroj\u00eb vendet p\u00ebr at\u00eb q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb rrezik, zbuluan autor\u00ebt e raportit.<\/p>\n

\u201cQeverit\u00eb nuk po mendojn\u00eb dhe nuk jan\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrgatitura p\u00ebr [k\u00ebto rezultate]\u201d, tha Beth Walker, bashkautore e raportit. \u201cTranzicioni b\u00ebhet m\u00eb i rreziksh\u00ebm p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb kur prodhuesit e naft\u00ebs lihen t\u00eb p\u00ebrshtaten vet\u00eb dhe tregjet e naft\u00ebs lihen t\u00eb menaxhojn\u00eb vet\u00eb. Brisht\u00ebsia e prodhuesve b\u00ebhet nj\u00eb rrezik global p\u00ebr sigurin\u00eb.\u201d<\/p>\n

Shtyrja ose ngadal\u00ebsimi i tranzicionit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi edhe m\u00eb e keqe sesa p\u00ebrballja me t\u00eb, megjithat\u00eb, pasi kriza klimatike po p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsohet me shpejt\u00ebsi. \u201cAsnj\u00eb nga k\u00ebto nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb argument p\u00ebr ngadal\u00ebsimin e tranzicionit\u201d, tha Maria Pastukhova, nj\u00eb bashkautore e raportit. \u201cNj\u00eb tranzicion i ngadalt\u00eb, por kaotik, mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb po aq destabilizues sa nj\u00eb i shpejt\u00eb, ndoshta edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb.\u201d<\/p>\n

E3G e p\u00ebrpiloi raportin gjat\u00eb dy viteve, pjes\u00ebrisht p\u00ebrmes \u201cloj\u00ebrave lufte\u201d t\u00eb skenar\u00ebve t\u00eb ndrysh\u00ebm p\u00ebr r\u00ebnien e k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs p\u00ebr naft\u00eb me m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 100 n\u00ebpun\u00ebs publik\u00eb dhe ekspert\u00eb nga e gjith\u00eb bota.<\/p>\n

Bob Ward, drejtor i politikave n\u00eb Institutin e K\u00ebrkimeve Grantham n\u00eb Shkoll\u00ebn e Ekonomis\u00eb n\u00eb Lond\u00ebr, i cili nuk ishte i p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb raport, tha se vendet e zhvilluara do t\u00eb preken gjithashtu. \u201cShum\u00eb prodhues t\u00eb naft\u00ebs kan\u00eb mohuar ritmin dhe shkall\u00ebn me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn si k\u00ebrkesa ashtu edhe oferta do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb bien n\u00ebse duam t\u00eb shmangim ndryshimet e rrezikshme klimatike\u201d, tha ai. \u201cDuhet t\u00eb jemi t\u00eb qart\u00eb se prodhuesit me koston m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00ebt q\u00eb do ta ndiejn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb tronditje. Deti i Veriut ka kosto t\u00eb larta operative dhe k\u00ebshtu nuk ka gjasa t\u00eb jet\u00eb ekonomikisht i q\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm sapo k\u00ebrkesa t\u00eb filloj\u00eb t\u00eb bjer\u00eb ndjesh\u00ebm dhe \u00e7mimet e tregut t\u00eb ulen.\u201d<\/p>\n

T\u00eb ardhurat nga nafta p\u00ebrb\u00ebjn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 40% t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave p\u00ebr qeverit\u00eb n\u00eb 17 vende t\u00eb bot\u00ebs dhe n\u00eb disa raste jan\u00eb burimi d\u00ebrrmues m\u00eb i madh i t\u00eb ardhurave, p\u00ebr shembull n\u00eb Irak dhe Libi, ku p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebson 70% deri n\u00eb 90% t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave qeveritare.<\/p>\n

Por k\u00ebto t\u00eb ardhura do t\u00eb bien me shpejt\u00ebsi nga viti 2030: E3G parashikon q\u00eb Algjeria do t\u00eb p\u00ebrjetoj\u00eb nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie prej 87% t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave dhe Nigeria m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 60%. Algjeria n\u00eb ve\u00e7anti ishte \u201cnj\u00eb vend p\u00ebr t\u2019u ndjekur\u201d, tha Walker, me pozicionin e saj pran\u00eb kufijve t\u00eb Evrop\u00ebs dhe var\u00ebsin\u00eb pothuajse t\u00eb plot\u00eb nga BE-ja p\u00ebr eksportet e saj.<\/p>\n

Kjo do t\u2019i l\u00ebr\u00eb vendet me boshll\u00ebqe t\u00eb m\u00ebdha p\u00ebr t\u00eb plot\u00ebsuar n\u00eb ofrimin e sh\u00ebrbimeve baz\u00eb, t\u00eb cilat do t\u00eb destabilizojn\u00eb strukturat sociale. Borxhi do t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb barr\u00eb n\u00eb rritje \u2013 raporti zbuloi se Angola dhe Meksika tashm\u00eb shpenzojn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se nj\u00eb t\u00eb kat\u00ebrt\u00ebn e t\u00eb ardhurave t\u00eb tyre qeveritare p\u00ebr sh\u00ebrbimin e borxhit publik.<\/p>\n

Walker tha: \u201cKjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb dramatike globale e naft\u00ebs apo siguris\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb seri krizash fiskale komb\u00ebtare q\u00eb mund t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohen n\u00eb probleme shum\u00eb t\u00eb ndryshme sigurie: trazira dhe migrim n\u00eb Algjeri; nj\u00eb zgjidhje shum\u00eb m\u00eb e brisht\u00eb n\u00eb Irak me ndikim n\u00eb stabilitetin rajonal t\u00eb Gjirit; kapacitet m\u00eb i dob\u00ebt shtet\u00ebror n\u00eb vendin m\u00eb t\u00eb populluar n\u00eb Afrik\u00eb, Nigeri, me ndikime n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb kontinentin; konkurrenc\u00eb ushtarake p\u00ebr infrastruktur\u00ebn e naft\u00ebs n\u00eb Libi me rrezik t\u00eb shtuar sigurie n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb. Shumica e k\u00ebtyre problemeve jan\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb shkall\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe se Venezuela, dhe t\u00eb gjitha mund t\u00eb shp\u00ebrb\u00ebhen pik\u00ebrisht kur kapaciteti i Mbret\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb Bashkuar dhe Evrop\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbajtur konfliktet e gjalla t\u00eb shteroj\u00eb.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00c7do p\u00ebrpjekje p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndrequr k\u00ebt\u00eb situat\u00eb do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb q\u00eb organizata t\u00eb tilla si Fondi Monetar Nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, Banka Bot\u00ebrore, institucionet financiare t\u00eb sektorit privat dhe qeverit\u00eb t\u00eb punojn\u00eb s\u00eb bashku.<\/p>\n

\u201cPjesa m\u00eb e madhe e mjeteve ekziston tashm\u00eb, por n\u00eb kuti t\u00eb ve\u00e7anta politikash q\u00eb duhet t\u00eb funksionojn\u00eb s\u00eb bashku\u201d, tha Pastukhova. \u201cFuqit\u00eb kryesore t\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs duhet t\u00eb koordinohen dhe t\u00eb komunikojn\u00eb m\u00eb qart\u00eb n\u00eb lidhje me k\u00ebrkes\u00ebn e tyre t\u00eb ardhshme. Ato duhet t\u00eb prodhojn\u00eb p\u00ebrshtatje jo vet\u00ebm si pjes\u00eb e ndihm\u00ebs s\u00eb tyre p\u00ebr zhvillim ose politik\u00ebs klimatike, por si pjes\u00eb e politik\u00ebs s\u00eb tyre t\u00eb jashtme dhe t\u00eb siguris\u00eb ekonomike, duke pasur parasysh pasojat q\u00eb p\u00ebrndryshe mund t\u00eb pasojn\u00eb.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kina ishte burimi kryesor i rritjes s\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs p\u00ebr naft\u00eb gjat\u00eb dekadave t\u00eb fundit, por konsumi i saj i naft\u00ebs tani \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb r\u00ebnie , pjes\u00ebrisht p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb automjeteve elektrike. Drejtimi i ardhsh\u00ebm i Indis\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb pak i sigurt dhe vendi mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet thelb\u00ebsor n\u00ebse k\u00ebrkesa do t\u00eb bjer\u00eb me kalimin e koh\u00ebs p\u00ebr t\u00eb shmangur disa nga ndikimet m\u00eb t\u00eb k\u00ebqija t\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsimit t\u00eb klim\u00ebs.<\/p>\n

\"news<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Konflikti, migrimi dhe trazirat ekonomike do t\u00eb shoq\u00ebrojn\u00eb largimin global nga nafta, p\u00ebrve\u00e7 n\u00ebse qeverit\u00eb veprojn\u00eb urgjentisht p\u00ebr t\u00eb ndihmuar vendet m\u00eb t\u00eb prekura nga kjo situat\u00eb, sipas nj\u00eb studimi. Nigeria, Irani, Angola dhe Algjeria jan\u00eb nd\u00ebr vendet q\u00eb do t\u00eb preken r\u00ebnd\u00eb, pasi ato mb\u00ebshteten fuqimisht n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurat nga nafta p\u00ebr qeverin\u00eb e […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,73,8,57,59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-aktuale","category-bote","category-ekonomi","category-lajmet","category-politike-lajmet"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekolajmi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekolajmi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekolajmi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekolajmi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekolajmi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23259"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ekolajmi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23259\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23260,"href":"https:\/\/ekolajmi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23259\/revisions\/23260"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekolajmi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekolajmi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekolajmi.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}